Tag Archives: nic carter

Seeking Tribe #10: Birthday in Quarantine

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

I turned 26 years old yesterday.

Usually having a November 21st birthday is quite nice because I’ve always been able to see family and friends, due to its proximity to Thanksgiving.

This year, I decided to just isolate and lay low because of the recent spike in hospitalizations in Rochester (and throughout many states in the US).

I will celebrate with a few friends once Thanksgiving is over but my response to everyone asking me, “What are you doing to celebrate?” was “Not much.”

Thank you all for the warm birthday wishes! They really mean a lot.

The Best of my Recent Reads:

  • “In the United States in February 2020, pre-pandemic, 8% of the workforce worked remotely. When the pandemic hit, that rose to 35% in May and bounced back to 24% in August. In Canada, in 2018 ~13% worked remotely, that grew to nearly 40% of the workforce working remotely in March 2020 [3,4]. In Europe, pre-pandemic, 5.4% of the workforce worked remotely, which rose to nearly 40% a result of the pandemic. We can assume there’s growth in remote work in regions outside US/EU too.

    In just a few months the amount of people working remotely ballooned to ~125 million people in North America (US, Canada) and Europe, or over 5 times the amount before the pandemic” [from: The greatest human migration in history will happen in the next decade (part 1) by Peter Levels]

  • “Billions of savers worldwide must therefore reckon with inflationary currencies, or monetary repression — a state of affairs where they don’t have the freedom to move their assets around. This latter phenomenon is often imposed by central banks that fear currency flight and accompanying depreciation…

    The Lira isn’t the only sovereign currency in which Bitcoin is already trading well beyond its prior highs. Other currencies where Bitcoin has already hit new highs since 2017 include the Argentine peso, the Russian ruble, the Venezuelan bolivar, the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, the Lebanese pound, the Sudanese pound, and several others. Those countries alone account for 523 million people” from Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs by Nic Carter

    Bitcoin’s valuation in USD has risen by over $5,000 USD since the last time I shared an article from Nic Carter. It is now approaching a new all-time-high in USD. This bull-run looks distinctly different than the previous run-up in 2017.*

    [*Nothing in this newsletter is ever investment advice. I just think this is an interesting topic – although I wish I had followed the enthusiasm of my friends who were into this in 2014 :’)]

I wanted to keep this week’s newsletter short. I’m sure there’s a lot on everyone’s minds as we prepare ourselves for what has been branded a ‘dark winter’.

I plan on:

Please reach out if you feel isolated and need some social interaction! We will get through this together, you’re not alone.

This post was initially sent on November 22nd, 2020 as part of an early prototype of my newsletter Seeking Tribesubscribe here!

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

Seeking Tribe #8: We’re All Going To Make It

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

I hope everyone had a wonderful Halloweekend. It feels strange that we used to have, more or less, one set day to wear a mask…and now we all wear them every day (is this a coronavirus joke or…?)

While the spoozy szn has past, I know the real scary day on your calendar, for many of you, is Election Day. Although, it does seems unlikely that we’ll have a clear winner on Tuesday (I’d guess ~ 20% probability that we have a  definite winner on Tuesday night – ie. some sort of wave scenario, or otherwise surprising trend; particularly after reading reports that some PA counties will not count votes until the following dayThis could change).

Before you go to check 538 again, I’d like to encourage you to not. One of the common critiques is that 538 “got it wrong in 2016”, which reflects a common misunderstanding of probability. No candidate is given a 0% probability of winning, therefore, in reality, a certain outcome cannot be used to refute the validity of their models.

However, this rebuttal can be easily followed-up with another critique. This type of modeling can be better or worse, more or less useful, but it’s ultimately unfalsifiable. Were the odds 99-1? or were they 55-45? We only get to live in N=1 reality, so we’re not able to see in how many simulations of the world Candidate A or Candidate B wins.

I have no idea what the results of the election will be. Personally, I am looking forward to exiting from this (two-and-a-half-year?) electoral cycle. Politics, and more importantly, governance are important. But I am hopeful that soon we’ll all have more energy and attention to focus where we can can make the greatest direct, positive contributions.

Now, like all of 2020, is a wonderful time for each of us to practice having a healthy, functional belief about our ability to influence the world. There are tangible actions you can still take to influence the [on-going] election at the margin, please have at it and leave it all on the field. Just know that no matter how many times we refresh the latest polls page, we will not have any greater predictive power about what electoral results the future will bring us.

The most doomer scenarios are all unlikely, ie. Civil War, large-scale violence, etc. I would bet against a significant breakdown in our society’s functioning (although I think it’s plausible that we’ll see localized issues and violence similar, and perhaps a bit greater, to what has already occurred in 2020). While the only thing that most of our elected officials can agree on is “This is the most important election of our lifetime,” I think more voters (and non-voters) would agree with the statement “The United States is worth more than the results of a single election.”

People are going to continue to work, go shopping at the grocery store, educate their children, and love their neighbors. Most people have spent much less time thinking about any of this than most of you who are still reading this. Please do not let fear or despair come to dominate your life. Elections have consequences and life goes on. Both are true!

We’re all going to make it.

The Best of my Recent Reads:

  • The Centralized Internet Is Inevitable by Samo Burja

    I still believe that the internet has and will continue to “change facts on the ground” and facilitate the creation of products that enable [certain] 3rd-parties to be disintermediated, ie. Bitcoin or 3D Printing

    Samo likely wouldn’t dispute any of that but still provides a powerful counter-narrative that’s worth considering

  • There are millions of highly skilled developers in the world. Only a small fraction work at large technology companies, and only a small fraction of those work on new product development. Many of the most important software projects in history were created by startups or by communities of independent developers.” from Why Decentralization Matters by Chris Dixon

    Samo referenced Chris’ piece so I figured I’d feature it to present the kind of theory that he’s challenging

  • I don’t know if I will see the completion of this project, or even if it will work in the long term. But that doesn’t bother me. I’m focused on placing the next brick.“, from Bitcoin at 12 by Nic Carter

    Bitcoin hit a valuation of $14,000/BTC as it turned 12 years old. This piece from Nic resonated with my own thesis on Bitcoin, in that, I do not think it’s inevitable, or perhaps even likely to succeed in its vision.

    That doesn’t mean it won’t change our world, or continue to capture the minds and talents of many of the most competent technologists. Or the dollars of institutional and retail investors… [Not investment advice].

I should have much more original content in the upcoming newsletters! My plan was to press publish on quite a few pieces that I’ve been working on. However, I ended up having quite a few time-sensitive work opportunities pop-up throughout the past week. Please wish me luck on these interviews :))

As always, please feel free to reply and leave any feedback, questions, or share something random with me to spark a conversation. I wish you all nothing but the best this week!

This post was initially sent on November 1st, 2020 as part of an early prototype of my newsletter Seeking Tribesubscribe here!

Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail